Strategic consequneces of the Walid al Masri-Taliban nexus on AF-PAK strategy and AQ-Taliban relations
By Leah Farrall, Australia
Okay onto the good stuff. For those of you just arriving to this post, it is a follow on from two posts earlier posts here and here documenting the re-entry of Abu Walid al Masri into the Taliban fold.
This is my humble effort to add some analysis and context to what I think might be going on with the new al Masri-Taliban nexus and the potential strategic consequences of this for US AF-PAK strategy, al Qaeda-Taliban relations and more generally the Taliban’s strategy for regaining Afghanistan.
I find al Masri’s renewed links with the Taliban fascinating.
It will generate more publicity for him, which is clearly the aim of his intermediaries who have negotiated these articles entering into Taliban publications.
But more fascinating and significant is how this is going to hurt al Qaeda. Al Masri has aired their dirty laundry like no one else has and because of his stature they have only made limited efforts to challenge it–usually in the forums. But now al Masri’s work is sanctioned in an official Taliban publication.
This is going to add an entirely new dimension to al Qaeda-Taliban relations, especially when viewed in light of the Taliban’s release of a statement in the past few days, which emphasized it poses no threat to the west (which I wrote about yesterday). Here we can clearly see that al Qaeda has an issue on its hands.
As an aside I didn’t include it in my post yesterday because I didn’t know about al Masri’s articles in the Taliban publication, but I did think that the rationale in the Taliban statement smacked of his logic; especially the US desire to expand from Afghanistan through to greater Khorosan and onto the Caucasus. This has been a consistent theme in al Masri’s writing. However it hasn’t for the Taliban ( I commented on this in my post yesterday about their 8th Anniversary of the occupation statement here). Now al Masri’s renewed links to the Taliban have come to light (which I didn’t know when I posted that it looked like/smelt like al Masri’s logic) it all starts to make a little more sense for me.
Here it is important to clarify that al Masri’s articles did not appear in a Taliban publication without approval. All media is approved by a senior committee, so this constitutes an official sanction of his position. What is more this has been some time in the making as I explained in my previous post.
Hence, I am now wondering what the implications of al Masri’s renewed ties with the Taliban may mean for the strategy it employs to try to expel the foreign forces and regain power. And I don’t mean the adoption of a kidnapping strategy here, although I do think that this will be adopted by the Taliban if it feels (as al Masri does) that it would give it leverage to get foreign forces out of the country. Rather, I am referring to al Masri’s general level of influence and the implications of his re-emergence on the Taliban’s broader politico-military strategy.
Although he is a solitary figure with no real group behind him, we are talking about someone whose influence not only with the Taliban but also with the IMU and more generally militants from greater Khorosan is hugely significant. Al Masri helped the IMU to establish itself and gave its members their first formal training in 1994-1995.
During the time of the Taliban, al Masri along with the leader of the IMU, was Mullah Omar’s closest foreign advisor. Al Masri was the first foreigner to give Mullah Omar a personal oath of allegiance, followed by the recently deceased Mohammad Tahir aka Tahir Yuldashev, leader of the IMU.
Bin Laden refused to do so and later when coming under intense pressure to do so, instead gave one by proxy, which enabled him to wrangle out of following Omar’s orders but appear to have given bayat. Interestingly enough it was al Masri he tricked into doing so (which as is clear in al Masri’s most recent book, he is still very angry about).
The key point here and one which I have made repeatedly on this blog is that the IMU-Taliban linkages and more broadly the linkages of the Taliban to the greater Khorosan groups/militants operating in Afghanistan are very strong. They are stronger than its links with al Qaeda and always have been. There are several reasons for this. Al Qaeda was not well liked by these groups for its attempts to gain control over them, and then when this failed to undermine them. They also did not agree with its strategy of targeting America, believing that it would harm efforts to bring about a caliphate in greater Khorosan. But finally, they have a much closer ideological link. Most of these groups are Hanafi influenced, like the Taliban. Al Qaeda is not.
And as I have said all of these groups revere al Masri because it was him and not al Qaeda who supported them when they were trying to start out and train in Afghanistan in the early to mid 90’s. Al Qaeda refused to support them. Mind you it had no capacity to do so anyway, but that has never stopped it making false promises before. In this case, it was pretty much a straight out refusal because it didn’t believe it was viable and of course it saw no opportunity to gain control over them, which always figures first in bin Laden’s strategic calculations of who to support.
So to me, this is looking a hell of a lot like the summer of 2001 when this block of Hamid, a key Taliban faction and the Khorosan groups, along with a few other groups aligned against al Qaeda. The consequence was Mullah Omar gave control of the newly formed volunteer force to the IMU and in particular to Juma Namangani, the head of the IMU’s military committee instead of al Qaeda. This is the force often wrongly called the 055 brigade and credited with being an al Qaeda force, which it is not but this is an entirely new post in itself. It’s all in my thesis so will save it for then since it’s not too far away now. Of course 9/11 came along and then the invasion and these internal skirmishes were put aside. But it seems to me they are coming back now. Okay, back to my point.
The bottom line:
I think that al Masri’s re-emergence might come to have more important reverberations for al Qaeda than any theological criticism that has thus far been aimed at it.
This is of course dependent on whether the Taliban does (and given accessibility issues is able to) further engage him as a military and political strategist and advisor. I suspect if they can, they will, because al Masri is, in these circles, the best there is. But aside from this, the Taliban senses an opportunity from current US wavering on AF-PAK strategy and moves to delineate the Afghan insurgency from al Qaeda and deal with the latter as the priority.
They read the news and you can see this being cycled through their 8th anniversary statement yesterday, which Jason Burke wrote about and I added some extra blog commentary, which you can find here.
In this statement we can see that the Taliban too is delineating itself, sensing an opportunity. It was the clearest move I have seen them make in terms of delineation and I do not think it is a coincidence that al Masri is doing a similar thing. As I said, they probably sense an opportunity here. In this way, these moves might be the beginning of a reorientated strategy, which is reacting to the pros and cons it sees in the US’s current review and apparent repositioning of its own strategy.
I’m no game theorist (I so should have paid more attention in college during these courses) but from what I remember I find these emerging moves on both sides, in this context, to be fascinating. And of course to have potentially significant implications on how this plays out at least in their respective media campaigns, if not on the ground.
I must say I have been somewhat sceptical of whether the Taliban would disassociate from al Qaeda because of tribal and religious imperatives (yes Abu Chaos am eating humble pie right now) but this recent turn of events has convinced me that at least on the surface they just might. However, having said that bin Laden has a knack of wrangling himself back into the good books so the jury is still a bit out for me.
However, I will be closely watching the al Masri-Taliban interaction.
Not only does it fascinate me from a research perspective but also I think this is one of the best litmus tests we have for what the Taliban may be thinking. It is also useful to see what advice it might be taking in terms of how best to get foreign forces out of its country.
With al Masri on board and in Omar’s ear, this advice may culminate in the Taliban choosing a strategy that does not include protecting or harbouring al Qaeda. Although the caveat here being protecting or harbouring al Qaeda as it *currently* operates. We do not have a crystal ball here; bin Laden could ingratiate himself back into the good books by promising to behave himself as he has done on previous occasions. Although, causing the downfall the Emirate may be something al Qaeda cannot recover from, especially if al Masri gets Omar’s ear.
And the irony of all of this is that al Qaeda can do very little to challenge al Masri or a repositioned Taliban strategy. The Taliban’s publication of al Masri’s work takes away al Qaeda’s one effective argument when dealing with those who criticise it ( who are all incidentally in detention of one sort or another).
This argument goes something along the lines of: the words of the brother can’t be trusted; he is being forced to say this because he is in prison and being tortured. Or another line often taken focuses on bringing into question the authenticity of their work by saying it is a forgery by the apostate government who is detaining said person offering up an al Qaeda critique.
The key difference here is the other works al Qaeda has challenged with this argument are not in official Taliban publications. Al Masri’s are. They can’t take this line anymore with him. Or more accurately, if they were smart, they wouldn’t because it would seriously undermine Mullah Omar and the Taliban and not do them any good.
I’d be extremely surprised to see al Qaeda publicly counsel the Taliban or Mullah Omar over this, or challenge al Masri because in doing so they now undermine the Taliban. And if reports are to believed about al Qaeda coming under significant pressure in the Pakistan borderlands, undermining Omar is not exactly a good idea.
However, I may be giving al Qaeda too much credit here for being clever. What is more, what happens behind closed doors is another matter. I imagine there will be some interesting secret squirrel meetings going on somewhere in AF-PAK between them. Publically al Qaeda may just choose to put its head in the sand on this issue for the time being, until it can figure out a way to deal with it, or play it to its advantage, i.e. the remorseful son style approach, though that won’t cut it with al Masri; he is seriously cranky.
Meanwhile, I’m fascinated to see what al Masri writes next, and hoping for my own selfish purposes that he puts out some more clarifications on his differences with al Qaeda, as well as delineating exactly who was/is al Qaeda and its relations with other groups who are often wrongly lumped under the al Qaeda label.
Actually, we all might hope he concentrates his efforts on these types of clarifications. They are important to building our understanding. But that’s not my point.
Aside from the fact al Masri’s renewed presence is going to seriously mess with al Qaeda, he is the penultimate Arab Afghan strategist, and if he is giving the Taliban military and political strategy advice, I think they’ve just gained a big asset, even if his advice is from a distance.
Mind you, I could be entirely over playing his importance. However, after years of studying his work and his history and that of others who mention him, I’ve come to think he really is a remarkable figure in the Arab Afghan/Taliban milieu and by far their most capable strategist. Moreover, as his inclusion in the Taliban’s magazine demonstrates, he continues to be revered, at least in Taliban circles.
So there you have it. That’s my 20 cents worth. Sorry it’s rushed, it’s just off the top of my head since I have to get back to the article and chapter. Ugh.
This entry was posted on October 10, 2009, 1:01 am at 1:01 am
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فبراير 25th, 2012 at 25 فبراير 2012 1:29 م
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فبراير 29th, 2012 at 29 فبراير 2012 9:04 ص
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أبريل 2nd, 2012 at 2 أبريل 2012 11:15 م
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